@DavidJoffe64 @ejustin46 @MarvinH2_G2 Seasonality, estimates of reproductive number, generally in the range of 1.2 to 1.8. "Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature" https://
RT @KarlPettersso10: @DrCJ_Houldcroft Yes, the widespread immunity makes it hard to estimate real R0 for flu. Cf tab. 5 with very high esti…
@DrCJ_Houldcroft Yes, the widespread immunity makes it hard to estimate real R0 for flu. Cf tab. 5 with very high estimates of R in British schools when the A(H1N1) re-emerged 1977 (and everyone born after 1957 was naive). https://t.co/q4tMqX1wb8
@VanlesisStef @SandraZuidema @Gekke_Henkie___ @veen_els @MarionKoopmans Citaat: The median R value for 2009 was 1.46 (IQR: 1.30–1.70) and was similar across the two waves of illness: 1.46 for the first wave and 1.48 for the second wave. gaat over influenza
@IanCopeland5 "The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19–1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were <1." https://t.co/I7W1gz0zHc
@AlexanderOwen89 @TheEliKlein @CovidSerology You were not "completely right" since SARS-CoV-2 variants had an even higher R than wild type (and wild type already had a higher R than influenza). You're just an incompetent contrarian still committing the eb
@AlexanderOwen89 @CovidSerology @TheEliKlein How many times does this need to be explained to you contrarian ideologues before it finally sinks in? https://t.co/3r78y7RtRt https://t.co/WRFhYdOpZr https://t.co/WHkGIXCBe7
@TotalCytopath @19joho @arijitchakrav You're as beyond evidence as HIV/AIDS denialists are. https://t.co/mS4ZQIEkoZ
@Horatioyuletide @ResilientsTv @19joho @AngryCardio @jsm2334 Chew on this: According to this paper, the median R0 for the 1918 pandemic is estimated at 1.8. But that pandemic spread faster than SARS-CoV2! How is the R0 1.8 while Omicron is what, 8.0 or som
@TotalCytopath @19joho @arijitchakrav Keeping R below 1 (i.e. averting waves of infection) is part of the definition; it's a necessary, but not sufficient, condition. You still don't grasp that, nor do you grasp R decreasing below 1 for reasons other than
@TotalCytopath @arijitchakrav @19joho FYI: Unless you think >40% of the population was infected during the first wave of the 1918+ influenza pandemic (in which case you'd be wrong), its initial wave ended without herd immunity; i.e. R decreased below 1
@falsel_net @evly843 @JPWeiland The BA.2.86 estimates still have way too little data—need more. In summer the reproduction number of seasonal flu is below 1 (that's why it is seasonal, in contrast with SARS-CoV-2). "The median R value for seasonal influe
@stkirsch "The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19–1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were <1." https://t.co/KbUOpfEgwM(IQR,six%20R%20values%20were%20%3C1.
Flu is spread between people by respiratory transmission. Seasonal flu viruses tend to have an R number that is slightly above 1 at the start of an epidemic. https://t.co/KnUpe4Wmj5 By cutting the amount of contact between people, social distancing coul
RT @GosiaGasperoPhD: That also explains why we didn’t have flu during mask mandates. “The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.29…
RT @GosiaGasperoPhD: That also explains why we didn’t have flu during mask mandates. “The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.29…
RT @GosiaGasperoPhD: That also explains why we didn’t have flu during mask mandates. “The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.29…
RT @GosiaGasperoPhD: That also explains why we didn’t have flu during mask mandates. “The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.29…
RT @GosiaGasperoPhD: That also explains why we didn’t have flu during mask mandates. “The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.29…
RT @GosiaGasperoPhD: That also explains why we didn’t have flu during mask mandates. “The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.29…
RT @GosiaGasperoPhD: That also explains why we didn’t have flu during mask mandates. “The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.29…
RT @GosiaGasperoPhD: That also explains why we didn’t have flu during mask mandates. “The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.29…
RT @GosiaGasperoPhD: That also explains why we didn’t have flu during mask mandates. “The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.29…
That also explains why we didn’t have flu during mask mandates. “The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.29 (IQR 1.19-1.32)” So, much below 1.66 So, w/ mask mandates any airborne pathogen of Reff < 1.66 would be gone. 2/ https://t.co/8SG60
@DarrylMason @KarenCutter4 Seasonal influenza has quite a low R-number (1.27 in this metastudy) so roughly speaking, preventing 1 in 5 cases will stop it spreading. It's not difficult to see how that could have happened in 2021 and 2022. https://t.co/oXjY
RT @MarkChangizi: Reproduction number (R0) around 2 for COVID 19, a little higher than the typical value for seasonal influenza outbreaks.…
RT @MarkChangizi: Reproduction number (R0) around 2 for COVID 19, a little higher than the typical value for seasonal influenza outbreaks.…
RT @suzuki_takaya: 新型であっても、インフルエンザのRnaughtはだいたい1.8-2前後ということで、SC2よりはやりやすいと思います。またディスパーションのkも小さい Estimates of the reproduction number for se…
新型であっても、インフルエンザのRnaughtはだいたい1.8-2前後ということで、SC2よりはやりやすいと思います。またディスパーションのkも小さい Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the ... https://t.co/E1IcMCqRtV
@TzuSays @3SheilaMedeiros @Games_Oconnor @Xx17965797N Where is your source that it is more contagious? Mean flu R value 1.28 https://t.co/Wa4Sqo8DHY
@Biomaven R0 for influenza: 1-2 https://t.co/jwNTPSKunl R0 for RSV: 5-25 https://t.co/d0E4EQ944f
@madistod @firefoxx66 There has been a lot of R estimates for flu, and median for a seasonal flu in this review is 1.27, but R0 for a fully susceptible population is hard to know. https://t.co/q4tMqX240G
@graeme_0 @pennie_reese R0=1.28 estimated for seasonal flu. That gives H=1-1/1.28= 22% herd immunity to prevent exponential spread—a pretty low threshold. If the flu vax is only 50% effective then 44% vaxed gives herd immunity. RSV has much higher R0—and
@Floflo62_wp @Patrick2424 @RemiSalomon Biggerstaff, M. et al. (2014) “Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature”, BMC Infect Dis 14, 480 (2014). https://t.co/JHSMZ7kIFR
@CLoercks @WuChenFu3 @dm_ms Das stimmt einfach nicht. Der gesellschaftsweit beobachtete R-Wert von Covid ist nicht höher als der beobachtete R-Wert der Grippe. https://t.co/XuQjb0fknX https://t.co/5htr0CRTKm https://t.co/BYwcgQLczK
RT @adamjkucharski: So if H3N2 initially had an R of around 1.8 in 1968 (https://t.co/DqGpsr2gSL), and we wrongly attribute all of the seas…
RT @adamjkucharski: At the start of each flu season, estimates of R are around 1.3 on average (e.g. https://t.co/DqGpsr2gSL), and drop belo…
RT @adamjkucharski: At the start of each flu season, estimates of R are around 1.3 on average (e.g. https://t.co/DqGpsr2gSL), and drop belo…
RT @adamjkucharski: So if H3N2 initially had an R of around 1.8 in 1968 (https://t.co/DqGpsr2gSL), and we wrongly attribute all of the seas…
RT @adamjkucharski: At the start of each flu season, estimates of R are around 1.3 on average (e.g. https://t.co/DqGpsr2gSL), and drop belo…
RT @adamjkucharski: So if H3N2 initially had an R of around 1.8 in 1968 (https://t.co/DqGpsr2gSL), and we wrongly attribute all of the seas…
RT @adamjkucharski: So if H3N2 initially had an R of around 1.8 in 1968 (https://t.co/DqGpsr2gSL), and we wrongly attribute all of the seas…
RT @adamjkucharski: At the start of each flu season, estimates of R are around 1.3 on average (e.g. https://t.co/DqGpsr2gSL), and drop belo…
RT @adamjkucharski: At the start of each flu season, estimates of R are around 1.3 on average (e.g. https://t.co/DqGpsr2gSL), and drop belo…
RT @adamjkucharski: So if H3N2 initially had an R of around 1.8 in 1968 (https://t.co/DqGpsr2gSL), and we wrongly attribute all of the seas…
So if H3N2 initially had an R of around 1.8 in 1968 (https://t.co/DqGpsr2gSL), and we wrongly attribute all of the season-to-season increase in R to an inherent increase in viral transmissibility (rather than evasion of existing immunity), what do we end u
At the start of each flu season, estimates of R are around 1.3 on average (e.g. https://t.co/DqGpsr2gSL), and drop below 1 at end of season (because epidemic declines). So at start of each epidemic, the infection spreads at least 30% more easily than it di
@BR3NDA “r-naught influenza” got me this; the abstract breaks down R0 for several kinds of flu via literature review. “reproduction number seasonal influenza” should work too. https://t.co/8QZi1BRnjR
RT @_mbdr_: 1st we have to look at the R0 value of the flu. The most-transmissible flu, the Spanish flu, had an R0 of 1.8. The flus' Re go…
1st we have to look at the R0 value of the flu. The most-transmissible flu, the Spanish flu, had an R0 of 1.8. The flus' Re goes under 1 every year due to better weather and vaxxed or infected immunity, even though immunity isn't life long. 3/ https://t.c
@KrauthBen @justin_denholm @DrKGregorevic R0? Reff? For infection or illness? I've struggled to find those data, including mass molecular testing of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic individuals. Can you help? Consider the case definitions for 1918 influe
@imgrund So what you are saying is that there is now less transmission than the common flu and far less transmission than previous pandemics. Got it. The science is saying we are done. https://t.co/toAFG7OSbs https://t.co/QxY4TP6vKA
@pjie2 @tony_burnetti And I'm being pretty pessimistic on the R0 of flu. A literature review gives an R0 of below 2 even for pandemic flu. https://t.co/pP0mXPhMMb https://t.co/0cps10dEb5
@lesnla @SturnioloSimone @DrNeilStone For seasonal flu it is https://t.co/zstHSSSemQ
@JacobGudiol @AgnesWold Det ska ovan givetvis stå att Influensa har mycket *lägre spridningstal (Rt-värde). ~1.28 för säsongsinfluensan: https://t.co/52CimjBrCO; spanska sjukan låga 1.8. Delta/Omicron i intervallet 5-8: https://t.co/ihRVriEhoU Och detta
@lompattikammm @blessedijjy @Khairykj @KKMPutrajaya R0 Covid19: 1.4-2.4 (WHO, 2020), 1.5-6.68 (Liu, 2020), 1.9-6.5 (Park, 2020, SG&HK), 2.56 (Rai, 2020, India) R0 Seasonal Flu: 1.19-1.37 (https://t.co/CI4ubxOgg6) Cvd19 Death Rate: 3.4% (WHO, 2020) Se
@ngoede (Just checked https://t.co/cZ52ndEclq They have a lower R than Wikipedia: 1.8. It seems that the flus with R's more like 1.48 cause notably bad flu seasons (vs. the base they put at 1.28).) Given that Omicron's R is unknown* but probably higher th
@_mbdr_ There are estimates for R0 for the Spanish flu which are surprisingly low, see link. I have trouble to bring this together with the impressions of impact and virulence. https://t.co/xjYLx8eHYP
@CrushPC2 @_Vadjina_ @JHowardBrainMD Re: "Sure… masks, etc reduced flu cases exponentially but didn’t stop covid at all… hahaha" Oh, that's cute. You don't seem to realize SARS-CoV-2 is more contagious that seasonal influenza, even though that's been kno
RT @teavangelize: @pwareham @DFisman @nishiurah "The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19–1.37). Four studies reported…
@zookeepermc @BoydMath Not wanting to argue, I just stumbled upon the information that the median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19–1.37) in this literature review and thought you might fine it interesting. I suppose the term has other con
@DrTomFrieden Average R0 of seasonal influenza is 1.28 and less than 20% of Americans are infected annually. https://t.co/gBvgmL19Mb Rt of Omicron is ~3.7. Eight Americans are testing positive every second right now. https://t.co/xYcSulpRA0
@pwareham @DFisman @nishiurah "The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19–1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were <1." https://t.co/MBZP2g11fq
@d__a_n_i_e__l_ @sphprccpc @morgan_mysterio @eileenchongpoet According to this 2014 literature review, the median R value for seasonal flu is 1.38, with an interquartile range of 1.19–1.37. The 1918 pandemic had a median R value of 1.80, IQR 1.47–2.27. h
Covid-19: Is different to a seasonal flu. The R number for SARS-CoV-2 is approx. 3. Seasonal flu, depending on the strain, is approx 1.3. Therefore SARS-CoV2 is a highly transmissible aerosol virus. https://t.co/xcbs3UXQYu https://t.co/US5maBvgUS
It is far more transmissible and has the ability to spread quickly, which we are seeing with the current variant. The R number of seasonal flu is ~1.3, but may vary from year to year https://t.co/US5maBvgUS
@EDHotTakes @grassbyside @not_that_CK @Uaskt https://t.co/CFLtWnBgCz https://t.co/cgUprVkR6B I see your point and it’s valid as of now but the Flu R naught is based off data since 1910 when we have multiple break outs. Current data for SARS-CO was initia
@jennife18325634 @SharnelleVella @susieqramadan1 Standard flu (2009) had a Reproduction number (R) of 1.46 https://t.co/Akprj1Dgv1 Covid Delta's R is estimated to be 5.08 https://t.co/y0gvOjMyvt This means a single covid case can infect 3.5x more people t
@ElizabethTPall @tonytardio That’s what I’m saying. SARS mutates, varicella/ Measels do not, so you have natural immunity with Measels/ Varicella. Reproductive rate of influenza is around 1.45-1.80. Delta variant Ref is at 5.08. Original strain was 2.79.
@schwarznegas @PlayLeave @Sensldiota @MyWayIsBack Fontes Influenza: https://t.co/WgEjTzIOG8 SARS-CoV2-2: https://t.co/ldVjR8EwmS
Average flu reproduction rate is about 1.28 (https://t.co/yazjsOvOHA ) Compare that to the average reproduction rate of COVID-19, which is estimated to be about 5.08 . https://t.co/cpbnXYVv6L
@kentclarkoooo6 @IainMulady @alketamark @TheBernician Covid R 3.2 to 8: https://t.co/MAvtKwXbaW Influenza R between 1 and 2: https://t.co/tOq2Ih00xk
@_0minus_ Εξαφανιστηκε γιατι δεν ειναι μεταδοτική αρκετα (Rt=1.4 vs 3.5 for Delta). Ακόμη κ η διάτρητη προστασία απο τις μασκες, αρκει για να αναλαβει το ανοσοποιητικό μας κ να την διωξει, αφού όντας ενδημική 100χρ τωρα, εχουμε ολοι μας καποια μορφή ανοσία
@D151NF0 @BBCNews What about it? I know that's the case. But we don't know for sure who's had it and who hasn't, as I said. Less than 20% of us had ABs before the vax programme started. https://t.co/15RabtrRDn
@mickbognor @GoonerRichB @BBCNews Flu has a much lower R0 than Covid - 1.28 cited here. R0 for the "Kent" variant was about 4. So the R of flu would more easily be brought under 1, which means the cases contract or just never take off in the first place.
RT @Semoriil: Якщо наведені дані вірні, то блокада китайських міст справі мало допоможе, лише трошки виграє часу. Тиждень чи два... Цей ко…
@BoiTinnie @ronInBendigo @GWF61 The kicker...? It's also lower than the flu. It's under 1, and the below 24 studies show flu to be 1.28. Do you see what we are talking about though? Small variations between these two... Am I missing something?https://t.co/
@Hwy41 @jazzfaninca @0x0caf @loansla @GavinNewsom 1. With delta you're wrong about relative death likelihood. 2. Flu is MUCH less contagious. Even the 1918 pandemic flu had an R0 of only 1.80. 57 studies from 2009 show a median flu R0 of 1.46 - https://t.c
@proyectoglobal Glückwunsch zum Whataboutism. Unterschied ist jedoch, dass die Grippe bei weitem nicht so infektiös ist. Die saisonale Influenza hat einen R-Wert von ~1.3 [1] Corona kommt auf 2-3 (Wildtyp) bzw. 6-7 (Delta) [2] [1] https://t.co/1iQ4MLdv
@helen0002 @godsearth1 @debsyn1 @JamesLondon007 @fleetstreetfox Yep, they made the R number up just to scare us. In fact, they wanted to scare us so much that they made it up in 1952, nearly 70 years before the covid-19 pandemic. You utter moron. Here's th
RT @AtomsksSanakan: 4/D His infection rate guess of ~1% was also known to be ridiculous back when he guessed it. Seasonal flu infects mor…
4/D His infection rate guess of ~1% was also known to be ridiculous back when he guessed it. Seasonal flu infects more people than that, and it's less contagious (i.e. has a lower R0) than SARS-CoV-2. https://t.co/nPswJydACm https://t.co/ELfl2vLRM3 ht
@hollywoodtoni0 @Vaporub83 @DBillz @Girasol_Mary @siSTEMpuede 1918 death rate would have been lower than Covid if they had modern medicine though. The R value for 1918 flu was ~1.8. OG COVID was ~2.5, and Delta Variant is ~6.5(!). This spreads way better t
@NicosBurgers @LapisloveLazuli @CiaTheBitch @shoe0nhead https://t.co/D8Hv6zusZv Delta variant R0 is 7 Original strain is 3 https://t.co/8It6vWQkZu Seasonal flu is 1.3
@davyrwhite @wartime_bride @crashandsmash66 "Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature | BMC Infectious Diseases | Full Text" https://t.co/cYzWTU5NgC
RT @finno1au: @BigBadDenis @slsandpet @GladysB The problem. The flu R0 is way less than delta. The median R value for seasonal influenza wa…
RT @finno1au: @BigBadDenis @slsandpet @GladysB The problem. The flu R0 is way less than delta. The median R value for seasonal influenza wa…
@noplaceforsheep @GladysB This is why. The flu R0 is way less than delta. The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28. Four studies reported six novel flu R values. Four out of six R values were <1. the Delta (Indian) variant has an R0 of 5-8. ht
@BigBadDenis @slsandpet @GladysB The problem. The flu R0 is way less than delta. The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28. Four studies reported six novel flu R values. Four out of six R values were <1. the Delta (Indian) variant has an R0 of
@SamuelInglis1 @itsaboutclass @noplaceforsheep This is why. The flu R0 is way less than delta. The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28. Four studies reported six novel flu R values. Four out of six R values were <1. the Delta (Indian) variant