@murraygilman @garyruskin @sai_suryan Replete with poor reasoning, assumptions and circular arguments; eg SARS (contrary to claim) could never have become pandemic, as it lacks asymptomatic (stealth) transmission (see https://t.co/CoMKxzFeKe). Group think
RT @ColinDavdButler: @mdc_martinus @Rebecca21951651 @DrMikeRyan @Iamgoingtosleep Good that M Ryan mentioned labs as a source, h/v SARS had…
@peter_berghmans @DRTomlinsonEP @JeremyFarrar Of course, the more important question is when did the Chinese recognise not only H2H t/mission but easy, asymptomatic t/mission, a characteristic I termed "stealth" in 2012 and which is a pre-requisite for a p
@emilyakopp @peter_berghmans @DRTomlinsonEP @JeremyFarrar I wouldn't read too much into that .. just that flu is well-known for asymptomatic ("stealth") transmission, which SARS lacked. Any expt. intended to tweak a pathogen to develop stealth t/mission i
@mdc_martinus @Rebecca21951651 @DrMikeRyan @Iamgoingtosleep Good that M Ryan mentioned labs as a source, h/v SARS had zero chance of "starting again" as it lacks asymptomatic ("stealth") transmission, something necessary if not sufficient for a pandemic. H
@thomas_stearns @Rebecca21951651 @BillyBostickson @AliceCHughes @breakfast_dogs @MJnanostretch @R_H_Ebright @NIHDirector @mvankerkhove @DrMikeRyan @JeremyFarrar @spectator @MaraHvistendahl @SherylNYT @fayeflam Still waiting for absolute guarantee WIV (who
@BiophysicsFL Fauci: you could serially passage virus in 1920. Yes, but not with chimeric mice, blended with human airway cells. Some serial passage expts, conceivable in past, should still not have been done, eg involving prisoners of war; s/thing I allud
@AliceCHughes @danwalker9999 @MJnanostretch None of these spillovers - with partial exception of MERS - have "stealth" capacity, ie well-developed asymptomatic transmission; that is needed for a pandemic, as conservatively defined. Did SARS-CoV-2 acquire t
@Starshark668 @JamieMetzl My interpretation of yr tweets is we indeed disagree. eg you wrote: "virus has no signs of manipulation, Wuhan lab can’t manipulate viruses." Manipulation is debated, but for sure WIV could do serial passage, basically this "force
@danwalker9999 @jbkinney @EckerleIsabella All hemorrhagic fevers have h2h t/mission, but this is via direct contact with bodily fluids; as far as I know only from symptomatic patients. Hence zero pandemic risk (as barrier nursing will quench fire), no "ste
@CD57227 I don't think Andersen can be right when he implies SARS evolved towards greater infectivity; compared to COVID-19 SARS was an amateur; it lacked what I call "stealth" t/mission "https://t.co/CoMKxzFeKe"
RT @ColinDavdButler: 4/9 SARS, unlike SARS-Co-V-2 lacks asymptomatic (or "stealth") transmission (eg Butler, 2012 - https://t.co/cXxXXnFYa…
RT @ColinDavdButler: 4/9 SARS, unlike SARS-Co-V-2 lacks asymptomatic (or "stealth") transmission (eg Butler, 2012 - https://t.co/cXxXXnFYa…
RT @ColinDavdButler: 4/9 SARS, unlike SARS-Co-V-2 lacks asymptomatic (or "stealth") transmission (eg Butler, 2012 - https://t.co/cXxXXnFYa…
RT @ColinDavdButler: 4/9 SARS, unlike SARS-Co-V-2 lacks asymptomatic (or "stealth") transmission (eg Butler, 2012 - https://t.co/cXxXXnFYa…
4/9 SARS, unlike SARS-Co-V-2 lacks asymptomatic (or "stealth") transmission (eg Butler, 2012 - https://t.co/cXxXXnFYa1). Very early in 30th minute PD seems almost boastful about how easy it is manipulate coronaviruses in the lab, including by altering th
@LauraKahn1 @SaskiaPopescu Spillovers are common; that isn't new (contrary to what's stated here); what's new here is that new forms have been identified, eg dog c/viruses. Pandemics remain v. rare. How many spillovers develop required "stealth" traits? -
@Biorealism @Orbness @Barthsnotes @Biol4Ever @R_H_Ebright @Harvard2H 2012 I pub'd https://t.co/cXxXXnFYa1 specul'g serial passage cd be used to develop more contagious Nipah. I did not then know of "humanised mice", obviating even more unethical expts invo
@janeqiuchina I've a medical degree (1987), Dip Trop Med & Hyg (Royal College Physicians, 1990); my PhD (2002) is in public health. In 2020 I was asked by UNEP to write a report on pandemic (in press). I've published many papers on IDs, eg https://t.co
@johno0910 I also identified ascertainment bias as an issue for EID trends https://t.co/CoMKxzFeKe; in same paper I also discussed (and criticised) including AMR with EID; then (2013) a technical report for WHO made the same points, though more diplomatica
@madrugada007 @vukoje_ana @EmmaReillyTweet @JamieMetzl @JeffDSachs @LNLonRN @JulianCribb @serge_morand @CroakeyNews Climate change, of course, alters distribution of many infectious diseases, including vector borne (eg dengue) to higher altitudes (and s/ti
@Mark38909618 I agree (altered - via serial passage?). Cannot prove it (yet). In 2012 I published section (which I later regretted) speculating how Nipah might be made even worse, using serial passage in (eg) prisoners. I did not then know of humanised mic
RT @ColinDavdButler: @Jikkyleaks @CharlesRixey @AGHuff @thackerpd @KatherineEban EG, if you read https://t.co/CoMKxzFeKe you'll see my crit…
RT @ColinDavdButler: @Jikkyleaks @CharlesRixey @AGHuff @thackerpd @KatherineEban EG, if you read https://t.co/CoMKxzFeKe you'll see my crit…
RT @ColinDavdButler: @Jikkyleaks @CharlesRixey @AGHuff @thackerpd @KatherineEban EG, if you read https://t.co/CoMKxzFeKe you'll see my crit…
RT @ColinDavdButler: @Jikkyleaks @CharlesRixey @AGHuff @thackerpd @KatherineEban EG, if you read https://t.co/CoMKxzFeKe you'll see my crit…
RT @ColinDavdButler: @Jikkyleaks @CharlesRixey @AGHuff @thackerpd @KatherineEban EG, if you read https://t.co/CoMKxzFeKe you'll see my crit…
@Jikkyleaks @CharlesRixey @AGHuff @thackerpd @KatherineEban EG, if you read https://t.co/CoMKxzFeKe you'll see my critique of Jones et al (2008) [PD as final author] (Nature) .. cited (GS) c7000 times .. but that paper should never have gotten past review.
@BiotechObserver @Ayjchan @EcoHealthNYC Another explanation: sloppiness. Jones et al (2008) (PD final author) cited >6K times. Prob world's most influential single paper on EIDs. Yet it implicitly equates 4 forms of drug resistant A baumannii as = to Eb
RT @ColinDavdButler: 3/18 my last grant ARC Future Fellowship 2011; Hon positions since 2016. I've never been i/viewed by @normanswan (NS)…
RT @ColinDavdButler: 3/18 my last grant ARC Future Fellowship 2011; Hon positions since 2016. I've never been i/viewed by @normanswan (NS)…
3/18 my last grant ARC Future Fellowship 2011; Hon positions since 2016. I've never been i/viewed by @normanswan (NS) - also DEA scientific advisor. H/ever I have spoken with PD, > 1 hour (2019, pre-pandemic). Mostly re climate change, but also re IDs h
@JanB_QLD @SallyRMelb @abc730 1/2 EG @JanB_QLD perhaps the world's most widely cited EID paper (Kate Jones et al - same Jones mentioned in Nature article) lists 335 EID “events”. This includes 64 cases of anti-microbial resistance, including 7 forms of dru
@JanB_QLD @SallyRMelb @abc730 eg SARS did not become pandemic (unless a very "soft" def'n of pandemic is used); nor have Ebola, Nipah, Lassa and many others .. they lack asymptomatic transmission, a characteristic I called "stealth". STDs have stealth capa
14/n pandemic potential. Such expts should be banned; if not banned then much better regulated. It's a "no brainer". I published on this in 2012 (before I knew re humanised mice, I suggested serial passage) see https://t.co/CoMKxzn5w6 Have long felt guilt
Apologies for typos (late at night here). I meant, in an exaggerated fashion. (I'm writing on famine at the moment). And his audiences have been credulous since at least 2008, at least in some respects, eg see https://t.co/CoMKxzn5w6 for a critique of Jone
@MMKavanagh Respectfully disagree; my conclusions based on 000s evidentiary fragments, accruing over >20 yrs work/study in field of ecol change, human health, EIDs; eg see https://t.co/CoMKxzn5w6 Note, I don't know SARS-CoV 2 source, just stress GoF is
RT @ColinDavdButler: Global civilisation thus at risk, via 1) intolerable heat; 2) food insecurity; 3) mass migration; 4) conflict (Syria t…
RT @ColinDavdButler: Global civilisation thus at risk, via 1) intolerable heat; 2) food insecurity; 3) mass migration; 4) conflict (Syria t…
Global civilisation thus at risk, via 1) intolerable heat; 2) food insecurity; 3) mass migration; 4) conflict (Syria the curtain raiser); 5) spreading epidemics in the context of social breakdown and public health impotence/erosion https://t.co/cXxXXnX1c1
My paper (2012) found muddy thinking in what is probably still the most widely cited paper on zoonoses (Jones et al, 2008) https://t.co/cXxXXnX1c1 I think scientists should think before they cite; too often they don't; they follow the herd, generating bad
@garyruskin @statnews "Risk isn’t from some postdoc or high schooler" (quoting an advocate that Nature is the biggest bioterrorist). I differ. Even "Spanish Flu" may be more to do with humans than nature, with its virulence "honed" by appalling conditions
@gdemaneuf @franciscodeasis @TheSeeker268 @Rossana38510044 @BillyBostickson @flavinkins @RdeMaistre @MonaRahalkar @luigi_warren @BahulikarRahul @angoffinet @jjcouey @AntGDuarte @DrAntoniSerraT1 @KevinMcH3 I would have thought risk of EIDS from bat guano co
https://t.co/CoMKxzn5w6 2012; still worth reading; critiques Jones et al (Global trends EIDs); much more. Main point: need to pay much more attention to "milieu" for infections. Paper doesn't foresee COVID-19; the origins of which remain obscure. Anthopoce
@rowanjacobsen I had many encounters with silverback in question about a a decade ago (when I was one of 4 co-editors for EcoHealth (not to do with EcoHealth Alliance btw), please contact me https://t.co/CoMKxzn5w6 https://t.co/hVYkypq9Jv https://t.co/AURP
international travel, climate change, & the trade in livestock and plants have been explicitly linked to emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) in humans and other species https://t.co/os77JPRUNH
FWIW I think a bioweapon is a distinct possibility. Am editor of relevant WHO tech report (https://t.co/AURPngl3eT) & author of a relevant open access article https://t.co/cXxXXnX1c1. At the least it likely arose from non-ecological pangolin raising, b
I don’t agree H5N1 was "halted": its infectivity was always very low (close to zero) and there was no a priori reason to assume its high mortality would persist if its Ro had increased, as Paul Ewald pointed out. We need to think more deeply. https://t.co/
High pop'n density illegally imported pangolins (prob "gateway" host b/w bats & humans) likely essential; Unclear re human pop'n density (pangolin carers?); lab escape possible; was there serial passage among many humans leading to more virulent form?
interesting examples of crowding, supportive of Oxford's hypothesis, see (open access) https://t.co/CoMKxzn5w6 and Oxford JS, et al War I may have allowed the emergence of "Spanish" influenza. Lancet Infect Dis. 2002, 2: 111-114. 10.1016/S1473-3099(02)0
agree strongly that myth 2 is a myth: see https://t.co/CoMKxzn5w6 https://t.co/55eoS3IsTY
Infectious disease emergence and global change: thinking systemically in a shrinking world https://t.co/CoMKxzn5w6 agree with Smithsonian flu "myth" https://t.co/CWFUdV4oEc
RT @Francois_Roger: Infectious disease emergence and global change: thinking systemically in a shrinking world https://t.co/BLgw1HJu61
Infectious disease emergence and global change: thinking systemically in a shrinking world https://t.co/BLgw1HJu61
Infectious disease emergence global change: thinking systemically shrinking world https://t.co/CoMKxzn5w6 comment: https://t.co/QrIQrIypwK
Bill #Gates: naive to real threats from antibiotic-resistant bugs https://t.co/vDz7nVjjt1 https://t.co/CoMKxzn5w6 https://t.co/u9VgHC74M9
showing the importance of the milieu for infectious diseases https://t.co/CoMKxzn5w6 https://t.co/LfZss4r3pJ
#IECID2015 some may be interested links to papers relevant to my talk? http://t.co/n84yFtJM0M http://t.co/cXxXXnFqkt http://t.co/d3fJqMFRnH
#iecd2015 was Black Death primed by European Great Famine (1315)? Might climate change famine prime future pandemic? http://t.co/kdjI8ohPOj
Epidemics, the energy transition and the risk to civilisation: Nafeez Ahmed http://t.co/4u1yjqIePu and me - from 2012 http://t.co/kdjI8ohPOj
RT @MartaBerbes: Colin Butler on "Infectious disease emergence and global change" and how we're focusing on the wrong drivers of disease http://t.co/3mYSgjNP
Colin Butler on "Infectious disease emergence and global change" and how we're focusing on the wrong drivers of disease http://t.co/3mYSgjNP
"Infectious disease emergence and global change: thinking systemically in a shrinking world" Colin D Butler http://t.co/1h0imxkS Free, full.
My good friend & BODHI co-director Dr Colin Butler writing for IDP: "Infectious disease emergence and global change..." http://t.co/1h0imxkS